THE DEKLEPTOCRACY REPORT

Issue #39: THE UK – IT CAN HAPPEN THERE

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BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

Welcome to our 39th newsletter. If you’re an American hoping to escape MAGA America to the UK, our newsletter brings worrying news about the rise of Nigel Farage, the Reform Party and the far right’s best chance in generations to take power in 2029. Sound like an eternity away? Well, local elections next month will be a critical bellwether. Just as it’s extraordinary that Donald Trump was able to become president again after January 6, one can say that Farage’s popularity, despite the economic catastrophe unleashed by BREXIT, which he was instrumental in bringing about, is a sign that he might just pull it off. One thing to watch is whether Elon Musk, who touchingly backs the jailed leader of the English Defence League, will come around, assuming an enterprising British prosecutor doesn’t try Musk for the role of his platform in coordinating Britain’s horrific right-wing riots last summer.

THE UK – IT CAN HAPPEN THERE

You’ll need more than a grain of salt when reading polls four years away from the next general election in a Western democracy. Nonetheless, if you are an American hoping for a safe haven in Britain, Mark Pack’s latest summary of British voting intentions is sobering. First, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is deeply unpopular according to every poll, with net favorability ratings of -30% or below in ten out of 12 surveys. Pollster YouGov has a chart showing that his net ratings went negative shortly after the general election in July of last year and have stayed there. Second, it is Nigel Farage, the leader of the insurgent Reform UK, not Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who is consistently besting him when people are asked to choose their next leader. If Britain is sleepwalking its way to Elon Musk-supervised populism and rampant corruption, American civil society needs to act now to solidify ties with British counterparts, especially anti-corruption actors, while respecting British sovereignty. Americans shouldn’t express a preference in the 2029 election, but they should be on standby to help British colleagues minimize the damage of a far-right victory.

We should note that the author of this newsletter is a British and American dual citizen and that DKP is non-partisan. We are not, however, non-political: we are partisans of inclusive liberal democracy and liberal internationalism, human progress, and the rule of law. We are most of all focused on combating corruption, and the recent content of our newsletters – including our sister Kleptocracy in America publication and regular Substack posts – is a testament to the grim reality that President Donald Trump is presiding over the systematic elimination of anti-corruption guard rails, Congress has failed to act to protect the constitution and accepted norms, and his personal business interests are driving policy decisions. These include, for example, sparing Russia (uniquely, except for North Korea, which effectively exports nothing to the US) from tariffs, which appears only explicable as a favor to donors. While we are based in the US, we take in interest in political developments in the UK, especially the July 4, 2024, Labour win that saw Starmer, a former director of public prosecutions, become prime minister and David Lammy, a veteran politico, take on the foreign secretary role with a commitment to wage an international war on graft.

So, what’s gone so badly wrong? This week, the Sun newspaper invoked “Keir’s worst nightmare,” and published polling that indicated that 68% of Britons think the country is “broken.” It breathlessly described how Farage would sweep through Labour’s famous “red wall” – traditionally working-class constituencies in the Midlands and North of England. We may see a preview of this in local government elections next month, with Reform contesting almost all of the 1,600 council seats up for re-election on May 1. Farage told a rally in late March that the local elections were the “first major hurdle” on Reform’s march to power. But it’s not all been smooth sailing for Reform – it has lost one of its five members of parliament (MP), Rupert Lowe. Reform’s parliamentary party expelled him after he threatened the party’s chairman in December 2024, and a probe found “credible evidence” that he and his staff harassed two women. Police are investigating the former incident.

 

What’s a grifter?

Whether Lowe is emblematic of Reform elected officials or a bad apple that the party turfed out efficiently is a matter of perspective. Indeed, how one views Farage is a core consideration. Back in 2023, the Spectator, a small ‘c’ conservative publication, ran a piece entitled “Is Nigel Farage Really a Grifter?” (It helpfully explains that the term is an Americanism.) But the title itself plays off a line in a 40-page dossier about Farage that his private bank, Coutts, put together. It found, among other things, that “he is considered by many to be a disingenuous grifter” and is “at best, seen as xenophobic and pandering to racists.” The document concludes: “The [Reputational Risk] Committee did not think continuing to bank N[igel] F[arage] was compatible with Coutts given his publicly stated views that were at odds with our position as an inclusive organisation.” Notably, Farage himself published the document in 2023, after filing a subject access request to get it.

That Farage gleefully reprinted a report that called him a “disingenuous grifter” and “xenophobic” is on brand for him and for his party. Journalists and opponents have also accused him of repeatedly playing victim. Last summer, after a spate of anti-immigration protests that turned into riots in several British cities, Farage went on radio station LBC to assail one of its most popular presenters for dubbing the unrest the “Farage riots” and complaining that his security was being compromised. Some called this tone deaf when many blamed his incitement for the worst riots seen in the UK for more than a decade. Weeks after the riots, a UN commission blamed public figures, far-right activists, and the media for driving the violence, as well as police tactics, without wading into specifics. In parliament, Farage blamed police for causing the unrest, because they had been too soft on, er, Black Lives Matter protests. 

The riots were also a preview of Elon Musk’s potential role in bringing Reform to power. Not least, he’s fueled the fire of popular unrest. In November 2023, Musk restored the X account of Tommy Robinson, a far-right agitator, and of Katie Hopkins, a newspaper columnist and reality show denizen. Hopkins had compared migrants to cockroaches and claimed that a photograph of a dead Syrian child lying on a beach, which had prompted soul searching across Europe, was staged. Observers say Robinson played a much more direct role in inciting supporters of his English Defence League (EDL), and rioters reportedly chanted his name. Enrique Tarrio, a founder of the Proud Boys in the US, and who was pardoned for his role in the January 6 uprising, has called him an “inspiration.” But Musk has not just given Robinson, who is currently serving an 18-month sentence for breaching a court order, back a platform. The tycoon, who claimed that a civil war in the UK is “inevitable,” has actively promoted him. And Musk and Farage have come into conflict over Musk’s apparent endorsement of Robinson and claims that Farage “doesn’t have what it takes” to lead Reform to victory.

 

The long march

Musk’s endorsement of Robinson may not prove as successful as his alliance with Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Unlike Farage, Robinson does not have widespread public support and is languishing in prison. The EDL, like many British fascist groups before it, has suffered from low membership and a lack of finances. The current government has discussed banning it, but many argue this is unnecessary and would put life back into a moribund organization. Farage, on the other hand, has a track record of causing political upheaval. He previously led the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which attracted voters in large numbers from all the main parties to the project of withdrawing from the EU.  Indeed, the 2016 referendum on EU membership succeeded because it attracted working-class voters from many parts of Labour’s famed red wall. A crucial difference this time is that Reform has acquired almost all its voters from the Conservatives, so far, and achieved greater success than UKIP in the British parliament (UKIP did well in European parliamentary elections, which is no longer an issue). The danger for Labour is that Reform seems to be making inroads in crucial Labour constituencies, at least in the polls.

It's worth noting that Donald Trump remains wildly unpopular in the UK, according to available polling. Some are urging Starmer to take a page out of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s playbook and stand up to the American president. A YouGov poll earlier this year found half of Britons favored standing up to Trump and criticizing his actions. Trump has an open invitation from King Charles III for a state visit, and Starmer resisted demands he cancel this during a visit to Washington, DC, in March in the aftermath of Trump’s disastrous White House meeting with the Ukrainian president, who is particularly popular in the UK. But Starmer faces stark choices. The US “only” imposed 10% tariffs on the UK, compared to 20% on EU goods. For Farage, that figure shows the wisdom of Brexit, although it is also why Starmer feels he needs to sign a comprehensive trade deal with the US, something the Biden administration punted. Vice President JD Vance said this week, “There is a good chance” that this deal will get done, without providing a clear time frame.

It is unclear who will be in power in the US in 2029, when the next UK general election is due. If it is Donald Trump, Vance, or another surrogate, it seems unlikely that Starmer’s unwillingness to pick a fight would prevent them from overtly supporting Farage in a bid to win enough seats to form a government. If inflation grows or the UK tips from anemic growth into recession, and the Conservative Party cannot recover from its post-election doldrums and fashion itself into the “real opposition,” Farage will have a real opening. For Americans concerned about what is happening domestically to our rule of law, is there anything we can do? Yes. We should be enlisting and listening to UK activists and institutions in the fight against Russian money returning to our shores. British journalists and activists spent two decades chronicling the rise of Londongrad along with the crowds of enabling bankers, lawyers and investigators. We should be supporting the Scottish Green Party and their demands for an investigation of Trump’s assets in Scotland, including the issuance of an Unexplained Wealth Order, a sorely underused legal instrument that requires property owners to disclose their source of funds. And we should be helping British journalists investigate Farage’s use of MAGA advisors, such as PR flacks linked to Steve Bannon. And we can borrow a Brazilian approach and compile the evidence needed to try Elon Musk for incitement after last year’s riots. In sum, there is much we can be doing that does not impinge on British sovereignty but also shines a light on far-right attempts to subvert democracy and the rule of law in both countries.